Currency Risk Hidden? Your Portfolio Isn’t Hedged
Weight drift: Equity sleeve moved furthest from target by +5 percentage points. Current weights: Equity 45%, Bond 35%, Commodity 20%. Realized vol: Equity 14.0%, Bond 6.0%, Commodity 9.5%.
The factor attribution confirms the rebalance trigger.
| Sleeve | Current Weight | Target Weight | Realized Vol | Risk Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Equity | 45% | 40% | 14.0% | 52% |
| Bond | 35% | 40% | 6.0% | 28% |
| Commodity | 20% | 20% | 9.5% | 20% |
Breach: equity drift +5 percentage points from target 40%. Trigger: threshold breached. Rebalance action with target weights: Equity 40%, Bond 40%, Commodity 20%.
Table of Contents
Volatility Contribution Reading Highlights the Equity Driver
Current weights: Equity 45%, Bond 35%, Commodity 20%. Realized vol: Equity 14.0%, Bond 6.0%, Commodity 9.5%. Breach: Equity risk contribution 52% exceeds the 50% threshold. Trigger: threshold breach persists. The allocation math shows Equity remains the dominant driver of total portfolio volatility.
Action: Rebalance toward target weights to reduce Equity's risk contribution. See internal guide Enter Before Recession? Risk Parity Timing Matters.
New target weights: Equity 40%, Bond 40%, Commodity 20%.
Market Regime Context and Threshold Test
Current weights: Equity 45%, Bond 35%, Commodity 20%. Realized vol: Equity 14.0%, Bond 6.0%, Commodity 9.5%. Breach: Equity risk contribution 52% and stock-bond correlation +0.28 cross the +0.25 threshold. Trigger: breach confirmed by correlation reading. The correlation data mandates ongoing alignment of risk budget with regime dynamics, reinforcing the need for a 40/40/20 stance.
Action: Rebalance toward target weights to maintain diversification under shifting regimes. See internal guide Market Regime Changed? Risk Parity Needs This Adjustment.
New target weights: Equity 40%, Bond 40%, Commodity 20%.
Execution Path to Align Risk Budget with Thresholds
Current weights: Equity 45%, Bond 35%, Commodity 20%. Realized vol: Equity 14.0%, Bond 6.0%, Commodity 9.5%. Breach: threshold breached; Trigger: rebalance required to 40/40/20. The factor attribution confirms the rebalance trigger and the need to lock in a risk-balanced structure under currency and cross-asset dynamics.
Action: Rebalance now. You set target weights to Equity 40%, Bond 40%, Commodity 20%. See internal guide Wrong Volatility Input? Your Risk Parity Is Mispriced for mispricing checks if volatility inputs diverge from realized readings.
New target weights: Equity 40%, Bond 40%, Commodity 20%.
FAQ
Should I hedge currency risk?
Currency hedging is required to manage currency risk within the Risk Parity Portfolio. The current Equity risk contribution is 52% and stock-bond correlation is +0.28, breaching the threshold and reinforcing hedging needs; for actionable steps, see Execution Path to Align Risk Budget with Thresholds. Hedging preserves the risk budget and maintains construction integrity.
How much FX exposure is acceptable?
FX exposure is acceptable only to the extent it does not push any sleeve beyond the 50% risk-contribution cap. The current Equity risk contribution is 52%, breaching the cap, signaling that FX hedging is required to prevent further breach; This constraint informs portfolio construction by ensuring currency moves do not destabilize the risk budget.
Conclusion: Threshold-Driven Rebalance Directive
Verdict: Equity is overweight relative to the 40% target; Rebalance to Equity 40%, Bond 40%, Commodity 20%.
To execute, trigger rebalance when Equity drift reaches +5 percentage points or when Equity risk contribution breaches 50% or stock-bond correlation crosses 0.25, then set target weights to Equity 40%, Bond 40%, Commodity 20% and implement.